The Opening Drive 2/11: What Will Future Schedules Look Like?
What effect will the 12 team ( or more) playoff have on the future
It’s no secret that the college football calendar is broken. We’ve discussed it previously, but not ever in depth. Nor have we looked at what effect the current playoff format will have on scheduling going forward. Not to mention, there is little doubt that the College Football Playoff will expand sooner than later. Will it be 16 or 24 teams is the only question. It seems as if the Big Ten prefers to go to 24 teams, while the SEC prefers 16.
One of the biggest issues in attempting to make apples to apples resume comparisons has been the fact that the power 4 conferences never played the same amount of conference games. That is finally changing, as all Power 4 teams will now play nine conference games, except for five ACC teams due to pre-existing contractural obligations.
One of the casualties of the expanded playoff is more than likely going to be marquee non-conference matchups. While OSU, doesn’t always have a marquee out of conference matchup, this is most likely going to result a few future series’ being cancelled. Ohio State is slated to play home and home matchups with Alabama in 2027 and 2028, along with Georgia in 2030 and 2031. Both Bobby Carpenter and Paul Finebaum have gone on record and said that they don’t think the Alabama series happens. OSU AD Ross Bjork did an interview with Eleven Warriors on Tuesday and did not give any indication that either series would be cancelled, he actually went as far as to state that those contracts would be honored until a plan was put in front of him to justify cancelling.
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The Texas Argument
This past season the Texas Longhorns were a prime example of why the trend is going to be a more relaxed non-conference schedule. Had the Longhorns opened their season with Kennesaw State rather than Ohio State they would have been in the playoff field. However, the Longhorns suffered two conference losses and were left out of the field with a 9-3 record. The SEC and the Big Ten currently run the college football landscape, due to both depth of each conference and national footprint. That depth shows in the On3 toughest schedule rankings for 2026. Their top 10 is comprised of exclusively Big Ten (2) and SEC (8) schools. Ohio State could very well have the same result this coming season as Texas did, given their brutal schedule that is ranked #1 in the On3 rankings.
The Future
Unfortunately, I think the days of the marquee non-conference games are going to be few and far between. I think as the actual schedule gets adjusted, you might still see one big game on opening weekend. But, I think you’re going to see more schedules that mirror the OSU 2029 non-conference schedule: Navy, Charlotte, and Youngstown State. Once the “final” CFP format is decided and the calendar is adjusted, including the removal of conference championship games, the non conference games are going to be the equivalent of the preseason.
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